By John Caslione in Chaotics, Economic Analysis, New Normality at May 18th, 2009
I am amused a bit to read a post on today’s Wall Street Journal Economics Blog http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/ titled, “From Recession to Recovery Five Steps Under Strain.” The post begins with the line “As more economists expect a recovery to begin later this year…”
It reminds me that just as the whole notion of “recession” needs to be redefined, so does the notion of “recovery” need to be redefined.
The post outlines the five major factors that push a recession into a recovery. Yet if you look closely at the five factors, you can see the inherent volatility in each.
Economists and investors will become increasingly frustrated when they finally realize that the long awaited, 5-7 year sustained up cycle won’t materialize — not in 3 months, not in 6 or 12 months — not in the forseeable future.
This is the “new normality”, which investors will have to eventually accept and adjust to if they want to finally move forward with new, fresh investment strategies investing into companies who have also made their own adjustments to the “new normality”.
The sooner investors, business leaders and political leaders realize this, the sooner we will be able to get onto a new track of long term, sustainable prosperity (vs short-sighted, knee-jerk disruptive short term profit taking) driven by investment strategies that factor in turbulence, chaos, risk and uncertainty that will be with us for the foreseeable future in this, The Age of Turbulence.
By Chaotics in Uncategorized at May 4th, 2009
I have now realized that more and more the stock markets (NYSE, NASDAQ, London Stock Exchange) are less and less indicative of the true and real health of the economy. The stock markets have always been driven in great measure by psychology and too often less by the actual performance of companies whose shares are being valued.
One emerging feature of the “new normality” may be that there is an increasing disconnect between the equities markets and the true state of the ecomony.
Possibly a very wide disconnect, that may further bolster the CEOs and managing directors of business Taking greater control of their businesses and less control and influence that the investment bankers and their analysts may have over them.
We must be mindful of this becoming an emerging trend.
By Chaotics in Chaotic Strategies, Events at April 14th, 2009
Between 12-1 PM EST on 13th May, you can join Philip Kotler and John Caslione for a free webinar on Chaotics. Register to reserve your place here.
By Chaotics in Chaotic Strategies, Chaotics Early Warning System, Globalization, Turbulence, Uncategorized at April 13th, 2009
Addressing world leaders at the G20 Summit, British prime minister, Gordon Brown, said:
“The world lacks a proper early warning system…we have never given anybody sufficient teeth so that their views are treated so seriously that people will immediately have to act when that early warning is given.” Mr. Geithner agrees: “I am skeptical about the ability of central banks and regulators to provide early warnings of crises. We need to build a system that is safe against uncertainty, against ignorance, against the failure to identify the future source of crisis.” Look no further chaps.
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